Quantifications of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU); JSR-04-330

McLean, VA: JASON, The MITRE Corporation, 2005. Presumed First Edition, First printing. Wraps. Very good. v, [1], 35, [5] pages. Figure. Footnote. Formulas. Reference. Contributors to this report included: H. Abarbanel, J. Cornwall, P. Dimotakis, S. Drell, F. Dyson, R. Garwin, R. Grober, D. Hammer, R. Jeanloz, J. Katz, S. Koonin, D. Long, D. Meiron, R. Schwitters, J. Sullivan, C. Stubbs, P. Weinberger, and J. Kammerdiener (Consultant). From Wikipedia: Quantification of Margins and Uncertainty (QMU) is a decision-support methodology for complex technical decisions. QMU focuses on the identification, characterization, and analysis of performance thresholds and their associated margins for engineering systems that are evaluated under conditions of uncertainty, particularly when portions of those results are generated using computational modeling and simulation. QMU has been applied to complex systems where comprehensive experimental test data is not readily available and cannot be easily generated for either end-to-end system execution or for specific subsystems of interest. Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties is a formalism for dealing with the reliability of complex technical systems, and the confidence which can be placed in estimates of that reliability. The JASONs were specifically concerned with its application to the performance and safety of the nuclear stockpile, because the test moratorium precludes direct experimental verification. The JASONs defined performance "gates", margins and uncertainties and discuss how QMU differs from conventional error propagation. Finally, the JASONs reviewed the history of QMU and its meaning, and explored how it may evolve to meet future needs.