Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future Tapa dura -

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"Many ask who is a Zbigniew Brzezinski or Henry Kissinger of the young generation? The assumption of that question is that there are few with the education, experience, and background who can offer a global approach to the challenges and opportunities of our time. Brzezinski (my late father) and Kissinger at an early age lived abroad, learned foreign languages, and were raised by parents born elsewhere but cast on America's shores by World War II. That gave them special context, and, combined with their education, they were able to redefine America's role away from conventional state-to-state, balance-of-power approaches to ones more in tune with the challenges of their time. Welcome Marko Papic: Born in Southeastern Europe, and after his early education in Canada, now finds himself thinking through geopolitical risk for investors in America. He has written a remarkable book, Geopolitical Alpha, because he generally sees political risk analysts bungling it in terms of their analysis and strategic planning. This is a 'must read' for those interested in global investing and American leadership."
--Mark Brzezinski, United States Ambassador (retd.)

"Geopolitical Alpha is quite literally a bookend for a new paradigm in global markets. Geopolitics is now as relevant to investors as macroeconomics and central banking were in the last paradigm."
--Alan Howard, Founder, Brevan Howard Asset Management

"Marko Papic proves a shrewd and humorous translator between the world of investing and policy-making in the pursuit of Geopolitical Alpha. For both traders looking to find the next trade or policymakers looking to make better policy, Geopolitical Alpha can help you to better understand how our world works and how to operationalize that understanding."
--Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer, UBS

"From his very first chapter, Marko Papic tells us what not to do. 'Niccol Machiavelli was wrong, ' he declares boldly. 'Don't study the Prince. Study his constraints.' Drawing on thinkers as varied as Karl Marx and Richards J. Heuer, the guru of intelligence analysis, Papic proceeds to lay out what he calls his constraint-based framework for generating political alpha."
--Sebastian Mallaby, author, More Money Than God: Hedge Funds and the Making of a New Elite

"A thought-provoking geopolitical tour d'horizon that should be considered when we discuss the future of a world in disorder. Only the best books create vehement applause and protest alike. Marko Papic has laid the groundwork for both reactions. Therefore, read it!"
--Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, Chairman, Spitzberg Partners; former German Minister of Defense

"Like Tetlock and Gardner's epic work Superforecasting, Marko Papic's Geopolitical Alpha is an important addition to the field of prediction science. Papic's constraint framework is a new powerful tool for an investor's arsenal."
--Joseph Dowling, CEO, Brown University Endowment

"Marko brings geopolitics to life through a very helpful practical framework presented with key insights and wit."--Stephen Gilmore, Chief Investment Officer, New Zealand Superannuation Fund

"Marko's approach is especially relevant at this juncture. The big shifts he cites are real and highly consequential for institutional investors like us. In fact, gaining the right perspective on them today might mean the difference between future success and failure."
--Ziad Hindo, Chief Investment Officer, Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan

"Marko's style is restless energy in the service of cool, chess-playing logic. He is generous with his knowledge, merciless in drawing conclusions, and outrageously funny in delivery. He attacks the questions that matter most to investors and that experts too often leave shrouded in finely wrought uncertainty. And yet Marko is a superb writer as well as strategist, interspersing his methodological training sessions with vivid anecdotes of a lifelong intellectual journey from a shattered Yugoslavia to the heights of finance. Geopolitical Alpha is now the locus classicus of market-relevant geopolitical analysis."
--Matt Gertken, Chief Strategist, Geopolitical Strategy, BCA Research